Kevin Rudd
Kevin Rudd Mark Dadswell - Getty Images

Polls promise rough run for Labor without Rudd in top spot

FEWER than one in five people think Labor has a chance of winning the federal election, research shows, but that would change if Kevin Rudd was living back in The Lodge.

Research consultants AMR found just 17% of people polled in the days immediately after the messy leadership fight thought Labor would remain in government after September 14.

A whopping 58% of an online poll of more than 1000 people surveyed thought the Coalition were certainties to prevail, with a quarter remaining undecided.

Labor, with a primary vote of 33%, also trailed the Coalition 56-44% in the two-party-preferred stakes.

Almost one in two people polled (49%) indicated they would be voting for the Coalition.

But AMR found Labor's primary vote would jump seven points to 40% if the party dumped Prime Minister Julia Gillard in favour of Mr Rudd, while the Coalition's would drop to 43%.

AMR general manager Chris Pyra said the polling showed the ALP leadership question remained unresolved in the minds of many voters.

"Even now, reinstating Kevin Rudd to the ALP leadership would see a large shift back to Labor. With their current poor polling, Labor is running out of time to win back voter sentiment," Mr Pyra said.

"This research indicates that a Rudd circuit breaker would quickly change that, putting them back in contention to win the September 14 Federal election."

Prime Minister Julia Gillard.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Inga Williams

The AMR poll is the third since the leadership issue came to a head on March 21.

All three have pointed to an election wipe-out for the ALP.

Early last week Newspoll had Labor's primary vote at 30% and the Coalition's at 50% for a 2PP margin of 58-42%.

Late last week a poll of the nation's 54 marginal seats by JWS Research showed Labor would lose all 24 of the seats it holds by a margin of 6% or less.

The poll revealed a 9.3% swing against Labor in the marginals, which if replicated across the country could lead to it losing as many as 39 seats.