Rain or shine? BOM’s summer weather forecast

NOVEMBER to January is likely to be wetter than average for nearly all of Australia (greater than 65 per cent chance in most areas), and that long-term forecast includes all of the Northern Rivers.

In their latest climate Bureau of Meteorology outlook report, senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio and senior hydrologist Dr Robert Pipunic discussed the climate water outlook for November to January.

“For that November to January period, there is an increased chance of above average rainfall over much of Australia,” Dr Bettio said.

“We now have La Nina established in the Tropical Pacific … and that brings more moisture into our region.

“That increases the chance of above average rainfall and also the chance of widespread flooding.”

Northern Rivers Rainfall

Forecast November 2020 to January 2021 (75 per cent chance)

• Ballina: Likely to record more than median of 99mm in November and likely to record above median of 396mm from November to January

  • Byron Bay: Likely to record more than median of 122mm in November and likely to record above median of 450mm from November to January

  • Casino: Likely to record more than median of 97mm in November and likely to record above median of 344mm from November to January

• Evans Head: Likely to record more than median of 117mm in November and likely to record above median of 344mm from November to January

  • Kyogle (Fawcetts Plain): Likely to record more than median of 91mm in November likely to record above median of 339mm from November to January

  • Lismore: Likely to record more than median of 99mm in November and likely to record above median of 370mm from November to January

• Tweed: Likely to record more than median of 110mm in November and likely to record above median of 483mm from November to January.

BOM's website offers rainfall forecast predictions for the next couple of months around the country.
BOM's website offers rainfall forecast predictions for the next couple of months around the country.

Shorter-term reports also predict great chance of rainfall in most of NSW, including the Northern Rivers and Tweed.

“The fortnight October 26 to November 8 is likely to be wetter than average for much of the eastern mainland states and the NT (greater than 80% chance for the northern NT and northern and eastern Queensland),” a BOM forecast report for October predicted.

In regards to cyclones, an average to slightly-above-average number of tropical cyclones are expected for the 2020–21 Australian tropical cyclone season (November – April).

Australia’s Eastern region has an average of four tropical cyclones a year, and the current chance of more for this year is estimated at 67 per cent by BOM.